Forecasting international tourism demand from in Puno: SARIMA focus

Abstract

An important component contributing to the economic growth of the Puno region, particularly in the province of Puno, is tourism, the number of international tourist arrivals in Puno has been showing a moderate upward trend as a result of some programs and promotion introduced by The governments of Peru to attract international tourists to the country. This study attempts to model and forecast tourism demand in Puno using monthly seasonal series for the period January 2003 to December 2015, using the seasonal ARIMA procedures of Box-Jenkins, known as SARIMA. The study shows the following findings: The demand for tourists to the region of Puno is a series of stationary time in a deterministic trend with a strong pattern of seasonality, which could be due to the season in the country of origin. The unit-root contrast of Zivot-Andrews determined that the series presents a structural break in October 2010 when in contrast it is considered only the trend and a structural break in the month of February 2012 when in the contrast we consider both the intercept As the trend. The results of the study also show that the number of international tourist arrivals will continue to increase moderately in the near future, suggesting that regional and national government authorities make investments in the sector and make efforts to promote attracting more tourists foreign.