Effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the number of deaths in Peru: 2017.03-2020.07
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26867/se.2021.v10i2.116Palabras clave:
ARMA, structural break, COVID-19, deaths, PeruResumen
The objective of the research is to estimate the excess deaths during the COVID-19 epidemic in Peru. The methodology used for the ARMA models with structural with a structural change in mean. In the first place, the results show that the behavior of the number of deaths before the pandemic follows a firstorder auto-regressive process (AR (1)) with a change in the mean in the month of March 2020; while by including the period of the pandemic, the behavior of the number of deaths follows the ARMA (1,1) process with two changes in the mean (March 2018 and March 2020). Second, the results show that the excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic between March and July 2020 is 58 885 deaths compared to years under normal conditions.
Descargas
Métricas
Citas
Banerjee, A., Pasea, L., Harris, S., Gonzalez-izquierdo, A., Torralbo, A., Shallcross, L., . . . Pillay, D. (2020) Articles Estimating excess 1-year mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic according to underlying conditions and age: a population-based cohort study. The Lancet, 6736(20), 1–11. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30854-0
Clemente, J., Montañés, A., & Reyes, M. (1998) Testing for a unit root in variables with a double change in the mean. Economics Letters, 59(2), 175–182. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0165-1765(98)00052-4
Figueroa, J., Brennan, P., Theodoratou, E., Poon, M., Purshouse, K., Din, F., . . . Sudlow, C. (2020) Distinguishing between direct and indirect consequences of covid-19. BMJ (Clinical Research Ed.),369. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m1735
Khateb, M., Bosak, N., & Muqary, M. (2020) Coronaviruses and Central Nervous System Manifestations. Frontiers in Neurology, 11(June). https://doi.org/10.3389/fneur.2020.00715
Maleki, M., Mahmoudi, M. R., Heydari, M. H., & Pho, K.-H. (2020) Modeling and forecasting the spreadand death rate of coronavirus (COVID-19) in the world using time series models. Chaos, Solitons &Fractals. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110151
Munayco, C., Chowell, G., Tariq, A., Undurraga, E. A., & Mizumoto, K. (2020) Risk of deathby age and gender from CoVID-19 in Peru, March-May, 2020.Aging, 12(14), 1–32. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.14.20123315
Perron, P. (2017) Unit roots and structural breaks. Econometrics, 5(2). https://doi.org/10.3390/econometrics5020022
Perron, P., & Vogelsang, T. J. (1992) Testing for a unit root in a time series with achanging mean. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics,10(4),467–470. https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.1990.10509786
Quevedo, A., Al-kassab, A., Mendez, C., Cornejo, G., & Alva, K. (2020) Altitude and excess mortality during COVID-19 pandemic in Peru. Respiratory Physiology & Neurobiology, 103512. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resp.2020.103512
Roser, M., Ritchie, H., Ortiz-ospina, E., & Hasell, J. (2020) Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19). Our Workd Data. Retrieved from https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Sahai, A. K., Rath, N., Sood, V., & Singh, M. P. (2020) ARIMA modelling & forecasting of COVID-19 in top five affected countries. Diabetes and Metabolic Syndrome: Clinical Research and Reviews. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsx.2020.07.042
Vieira, A., Peixoto, V. R., Aguiar, P., & Abrantes, A. (2020) Rapid Estimation of Excess Mortality during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Portugal -Beyond Reported Deaths. Journal of Epidemiology and GlobalHealth, 1–15. https://doi.org/10.2991/jegh.k.200628.001
Weinberger, D. M., Chen, J., Cohen, T., Crawford, F. W., Mostashari, F., Olson, D., . . . Viboud, C. (2020) Estimation of Excess Deaths Associated with the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States, March to May 2020.JAMA Internal Medicine, (May), E1–E9. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamainternmed.2020.3391
Descargas
Publicado
Cómo citar
Número
Sección
Licencia
Derechos de autor 2021 Rene-Paz Paredes
Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución 4.0.
