Effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the number of deaths in Peru: 2017.03-2020.07

Rene-Paz Paredes

doi:10.26867/se.2021.v10i2.116

Authors

Rene-Paz Paredes Universidad Nacional del Altiplano, Puno, Perú https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0147-2096

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.26867/se.2021.v10i2.116

Keywords:

ARMA, structural break, COVID-19, deaths, Peru

Abstract

El objetivo de la investigación es estimar el exceso de muertes durante la epidemia de COVID-19 en Perú. La metodología utilizada para los modelos ARMA con estructural con un cambio estructural en la media. En primer lugar, los resultados muestran que el comportamiento del número de muertes antes de la pandemia sigue un proceso autorregresivo de primer orden (AR (1)) con un cambio de media en el mes de marzo de 2020; mientras que al incluir el periodo de la pandemia, el comportamiento del número de muertes sigue el proceso ARMA (1,1) con dos cambios de media (marzo de 2018 y marzo de 2020). En segundo lugar, los resultados muestran que el exceso de mortalidad durante la pandemia de COVID-19 entre marzo y julio de 2020 es de 58 885 muertes en comparación con los años en condiciones normales.

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