An export model for non-traditional products of Peru: period 2004 – 2016

Abstract

In the last fifteen years, non-traditional exports from Peru have gone from a value of US $ 2 044 million in the year 2000, to US $ 10 857 in 2015; which means a total growth of 430% and an average annual growth of 28%. This is partly due to the diversification of the exportable supply, the competitive advantages that each export sector has and to the Trade Agreements (Free Trade Agreements) of Peru with different countries and economic blocs. This document presents an econometric model for non-traditional exports from Peru in the period January 2004-April 2016, and because they are time series, first tests of unit roots and stationarity are performed on each of the economic series involved in the model of exportable supply, using the contrasts of Dickey-Fuller, Phillips-Perron and KPSS, which turned out to be all, integrated in order 1. To verify the existence of long-term equilibrium relationships between the economic series, two methodologies are used. Relatively recent cointegration: Johansen and Pesaran, Shin and Smith, resulting in the fact that there is effectively cointegration between the economic series and, therefore, the corresponding Error Correction Models are formulated. The results show that the variables Export Price Index and Importer Income (External Income) are determinants to explain the behavior of non-traditional exports from Peru.