Effect of climate change on the agricultural yield of the main products in the Puno region: Period 1964-2019

Abstract

The study used the Ricardian approach to determine the effect of climate change on the yield of the main crops of the Altiplano de Puno-Peru during the period 1964-2019. We use the time series data of temperatures and rainfall provided by the National Meteorology and Hydrology Service and the yield of the main crops provided by the Ministry of Agriculture of Peru to estimate quadratic production function regressions of each crop as a function of behavior. climate with Ordinary Least Squares. The marginal impacts are mostly in line with the Ricardian model, showing that the marginal increase in precipitation during the rainy season would increase net farm income, but would decrease in square terms this season. Other variables, such as the proportion of irrigated farmland and farm labor, are found to have a positive impact on net farm value, but not on farm machinery. Climate change impact simulations reveal that changes in climate attributes will reduce agricultural added value per hectare by a value that ranges from 7.11% in the 2025 climate scenario to 15.24% in the 2050 climate scenario. In terms of Gross Domestic Product, climate change will cost you a proportion of between 2.84 and 6 percent. In conclusion, the impact of climate change on agriculture appears to vary with temperature and precipitation in different seasons. The impacts of climate change are driven by decreased rainfall, which implies that adaptation efforts should target more drought-resistant crop varieties and technologies.