Effectiveness of the police presence and municipal serenazgo on criminal acts in theft and theft: an approach at the municipal level

Abstract

The objective of the article is to quantify the effect of the police presence and municipal serenazgo on the criminal acts of theft and robbery at the municipal level. For this, the fixed effects model and the method of Standard Errors Corrected for Panel 2016-2017 were used, with a population of 1,292 municipalities at the Peruvian level. It is evidenced that 12% of people nationwide and 19% in the Puno region, are victims of money, wallet and cell phone theft. In addition, the departments of Lima, Piura, Ica, La Libertad and Lambayeque are those that report the highest cases of robbery and theft. Likewise, the increase in police forces in municipal jurisdictions reduces the rate of robbery and theft crimes by 0.60% at the national level and by 0.68% in the Puno region, and the increase in municipal serenazgo decreases criminal acts by 0.20% and 0.17% in the country and the Puno region. The police presence and municipal serenazgo produce the effect of deterrence and incapacitation, in addition the probability of being captured of the subject increases, then the subject decides not to commit the crime and prefers to carry out legal activities, due to the fact that he can be sentenced.