Determinants of the Fiscal Deficit in Peru, 2008–2023
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26867/se.2026.15.2.321Keywords:
Current income, economic growth, fiscal deficit, public spending, real exchange rateAbstract
One of the challenges facing the Peruvian economy is the growing fiscal deficit, which jeopardizes macroeconomic stability and limits the government’s ability to implement sustainable fiscal policies. The objective was to analyze the macroeconomic determinants of the fiscal deficit in Peru during the 2008–2023 period. A quantitative approach with a non-experimental design and a descriptive-correlational scope was employed; the Distributed Lags Autoregressive Model was applied. The results showed that current revenues and economic growth exhibited an upward trend, while current expenditures and the real exchange rate maintained an upward trajectory, and the real interest rate was unstable; furthermore, current revenue and economic growth have an inverse relationship with the fiscal deficit, while current expenditure, the real exchange rate, and the real interest rate have a direct relationship; specifically, a 1% increase in current revenue reduces the deficit by 1.016%, and a 1% increase in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reduces it by 2.1532%; in contrast, a 1% increase in current expenditure raises the deficit by 3.328%; and a depreciation of the real exchange rate increases it by 2.077%. In conclusion, current revenue, current expenditure, and economic growth had an effect on the fiscal deficit, while the real interest rate did not have a significant effect.
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