Forecast of the production of the main fruits in the Piura region. An econometric analysis using the Box-Jenkins method

Abstract

The agricultural sector plays an important role in the economy of all countries. Agricultural activity in the Piura region is a fundamental activity for its development. The first objective of the study was to identify, estimate and validate the adjusted model to forecast lemon and banana production. The second was to forecast lemon and banana production for the period 2020M10 to 2022M09. To achieve the objectives, the Box and Jenkins methodology was used. The database comes from the Central Reserve Bank of Peru, Piura headquarters, and monthly data between the years 1999M01 and 2020M09 were considered. In the forecasts the presence of structural rupture for banana production was evidenced, in the forecasts of lemon production the presence of seasonality in the series was detected. Once the assumptions are met, the best fitted Box-Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving average model for lemon production is a SARIMA and for banana production it is an ARIMA. The results can be used to make decisions for researchers, producers and entrepreneurs in the agricultural sector of the Piura Region.